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Separate what smart money already owns from what SharpTrace would still copy now.
Which skilled-trader positions may still be worth following now.
Enter
Enter0
Watch
Watch0
Wait
Wait5
Avoid
Avoid0
Too Late
Too Late0
Unknown
Unknown6
Highest-priority decision
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · WAIT
Highest-priority unresolved analysis
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · WAIT
One row equals one decision. Expand only when you want the evidence.
| Rank | Market | Side | Current | Entry Advantage | Copyability | SharpTrace | Canonical | Decision | Why | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ELECTIONS | Yes | 7.4¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 43¢ better than trader average 50¢. | TOO LATE LIMITED | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | WAIT | WAIT | Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved. | ||
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? CRYPTO_PRICE | Yes | 23¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 50¢ better than trader average 73.1¢. | TOO LATE LIMITED | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | AVOID | WAIT | Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved. | ||
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? CRYPTO_TOKEN_LAUNCH | No | 55.0¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 15¢ better than trader average 69.6¢. | TOO LATE LIMITED | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | WAIT | Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved. | ||
Fed rate hike in 2026? FED_MONETARY_POLICY | No | 35¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 13¢ better than trader average 47.9¢. | TOO LATE LIMITED | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | WAIT | Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved. | ||
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ELECTIONS | Yes | 2.4¢ Oct 04, 2026 | BETTER ENTRY 12¢ better than trader average 14.2¢. | MARGINAL LIMITED | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | WAIT | Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved. | ||
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? CRYPTO_TOKEN_LAUNCH | Yes | 71¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 3¢ better than trader average 74.4¢. | HIGHLY COPYABLE GOOD | FAVORS YES | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. | ||
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? GEOPOLITICS | No | 93.5¢ Long term | 2¢ WORSE 2¢ worse than trader average 91.2¢. | COPYABLE GOOD | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | 2¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. | ||
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? CRYPTO_PRICE | No | 75¢ Long term | 2¢ WORSE 2¢ worse than trader average 73.0¢. | HIGHLY COPYABLE GOOD | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | 2¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. | ||
Trump out as President before 2027? POLITICS | No | 93.5¢ Long term | 3¢ WORSE 3¢ worse than trader average 91¢. | COPYABLE GOOD | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | 3¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. | ||
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ELECTIONS | Yes | 56.0¢ Oct 04, 2026 | BETTER ENTRY 3¢ better than trader average 59.3¢. | HIGHLY COPYABLE GOOD | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. | ||
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? GEOPOLITICS | No | 0.2¢ Long term | BETTER ENTRY 14¢ better than trader average 14.6¢. | UNKNOWN STALE QUOTE | NOT IN TOP IDEAS | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet. |
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
#1 • Yes • 7.4¢
Current
7.4¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
TOO LATE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
WAIT
Decision
WAIT
Why
Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved.
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
#2 • Yes • 23¢
Current
23¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
TOO LATE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
AVOID
Decision
WAIT
Why
Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved.
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
#3 • No • 55.0¢
Current
55.0¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
TOO LATE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
WAIT
Why
Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
#4 • No • 35¢
Current
35¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
TOO LATE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
WAIT
Why
Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved.
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
#5 • Yes • 2.4¢
Current
2.4¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
MARGINAL
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
WAIT
Why
Price may work, but liquidity is still unresolved.
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
#6 • Yes • 71¢
Current
71¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
HIGHLY COPYABLE
SharpTrace
FAVORS YES
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
#7 • No • 93.5¢
Current
93.5¢
Entry Advantage
2¢ WORSE
Copyability
COPYABLE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
2¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
#8 • No • 75¢
Current
75¢
Entry Advantage
2¢ WORSE
Copyability
HIGHLY COPYABLE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
2¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.
Trump out as President before 2027?
#9 • No • 93.5¢
Current
93.5¢
Entry Advantage
3¢ WORSE
Copyability
COPYABLE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
3¢ WORSE, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
#10 • Yes • 56.0¢
Current
56.0¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
HIGHLY COPYABLE
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
#11 • No • 0.2¢
Current
0.2¢
Entry Advantage
BETTER ENTRY
Copyability
UNKNOWN
SharpTrace
NOT IN TOP IDEAS
Canonical
UNKNOWN
Decision
UNKNOWN
Why
BETTER ENTRY, but the thesis is not independently validated yet.