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What deserves your attention today.
Coverage is incomplete, so an empty queue is not reassurance. Treat every recommendation below as unverified until this resolves.
0 candidates considered · 0 eligible · 0 evaluated · 0 failures · analysis stale
What's New
Nothing material since your last visit.
Today's Story
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? has the strongest developing conviction today. 0 ideas have preferred sides; 0 currently show validated positive conservative edge.
Compact Morning Slate
Blockers
Closest to WATCH
Closest to BUY
Worth Watching unavailable - waiting for current analysis.
My Markets
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recommendation
None Today
Current price
100¢
Copyability
Unknown
Last analytical change
Not in today's Top 10.
Last quote change
Oct 7, 2026, 3:08 PM CDT
Last refresh
34925.8m ago
Next catalyst
No known scheduled catalyst.
Quote freshness
Stale
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Recommendation
None Today
Current price
Current Decision Status
All mandatory inputs fresh. Full analysis completed unknown. No BUY recommendation cleared this run.
Pipeline summary
Buy Now
0
Watch
0
Wait For Price
0
Research Required
0
Pass
0
New Today
202
New opportunities
0
New trader positions
578
Investigations run
31
Upgraded
233
Archived
Current
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 31, 2026, 9:12 PM CDT
Scheduler: Degraded
Heartbeat: 9:13 PM CDT
Next scheduled refresh: 9:27 PM CDT
Auto-refresh: Every 15 minutes
Automatic refresh is offline.
The current briefing is still valid, but new analysis will not run until the scheduler is restored.
Automatic refresh is offline. The current briefing may still be valid, but new analysis will not run until the scheduler is restored.
Oct 31, 2026, 9:12 PM CDT
Last Full Analysis
Unknown
Run Duration
Unknown
Markets Refreshed
Unknown
Markets Evaluated
Unknown
Materially Changed
Current
Pipeline Status
Per-input freshness could not be assessed this request.
Buy Now
No trade currently meets SharpTrace's BUY standard.
Decision Intelligence
Today is already usable while Committee loads in the background.
Research Desk
Discovery, forecasting, and opportunity assurance in one place — tiered, budgeted, and explained →
Learning Desk
Post-mortems, source track records, and reusable patterns — real counts only →
My Journal
Your trading diary, one entry per day →
Discovery Report
New/archived/resolved opportunities, one entry per day →
Alpha Hypothesis Registry
Every hypothesis ever tested — rejected, parked, or still being watched — in one place →
My Feedback
Every piece of feedback you have submitted →
Top 10 Audit Trail
42¢
Copyability
Unknown
Last analytical change
Not in today's Top 10.
Last quote change
Sep 7, 2026, 11:19 AM CDT
Last refresh
78354.4m ago
Next catalyst
No known scheduled catalyst.
Quote freshness
Stale
0
Resolved
No new BUY.
Discovery Engine considered 706 candidates this run (698 admitted after category budgeting).
Shadow / Validating
These are not trade recommendations. They are frozen experiments collecting evidence toward a predeclared validation gate - see the Research view for status and history.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 22?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-22
Why Shadow 10pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
36.0¢
Kalshi
26.0¢
Gap
-10.0pt
Executable
27.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $986 · Kalshi OI 232
Opened Oct 21, 2026, 11:21 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 249 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 22?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-22
Why Shadow 8pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
14.5¢
Kalshi
23.0¢
Gap
8.5pt
Executable
25.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $969 · Kalshi OI 13
Opened Oct 21, 2026, 9:20 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 251 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 22?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-22
Why Shadow 12pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
25.5¢
Kalshi
37.0¢
Gap
11.5pt
Executable
49.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $829 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 21, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 251 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 22?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-22
Why Shadow 9pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
20.0¢
Kalshi
11.0¢
Gap
-9.0pt
Executable
14.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $839 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 21, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 251 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 22?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-22
Why Shadow 13pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
26.0¢
Kalshi
39.0¢
Gap
13.0pt
Executable
36.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $997 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 21, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 251 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 21?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-21
Why Shadow 6pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
17.0¢
Kalshi
11.5¢
Gap
-5.5pt
Executable
16.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $912 · Kalshi OI 43
Opened Oct 20, 2026, 9:18 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 275 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 21?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-21
Why Shadow 12pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
61.0¢
Kalshi
49.0¢
Gap
-12.0pt
Executable
53.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $1153 · Kalshi OI 132
Opened Oct 20, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 275 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 21?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-21
Why Shadow 6pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
20.0¢
Kalshi
26.5¢
Gap
6.5pt
Executable
32.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $944 · Kalshi OI 27
Opened Oct 20, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +30m · Updated 275 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on October 19?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 6pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
12.5¢
Kalshi
6.5¢
Gap
-6.0pt
Executable
8.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $820 · Kalshi OI 2720
Opened Oct 19, 2026, 1:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 285 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 20?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-20
Why Shadow 18pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
22.5¢
Kalshi
41.0¢
Gap
18.5pt
Executable
25.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $886 · Kalshi OI 8
Opened Oct 19, 2026, 9:02 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 261 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 20?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-20
Why Shadow 22pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
63.0¢
Kalshi
40.5¢
Gap
-22.5pt
Executable
50.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $967 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 19, 2026, 9:02 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 261 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 20?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-20
Why Shadow 8pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
16.0¢
Kalshi
8.5¢
Gap
-7.5pt
Executable
14.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $835 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 19, 2026, 9:02 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 261 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 19?
Austin · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 6pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
25.0¢
Kalshi
19.5¢
Gap
-5.5pt
Executable
20.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $836 · Kalshi OI 21
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 10:00 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 284 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 19?
Houston · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 10pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
15.0¢
Kalshi
5.5¢
Gap
-9.5pt
Executable
7.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $710 · Kalshi OI 13
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:48 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 284 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 19?
Houston · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 8pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
29.5¢
Kalshi
37.5¢
Gap
8.0pt
Executable
53.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $757 · Kalshi OI 42
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 284 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 19?
Austin · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 17pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
26.0¢
Kalshi
43.0¢
Gap
17.0pt
Executable
50.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $816 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 284 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 19?
Houston · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 18pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
18.5¢
Kalshi
36.0¢
Gap
17.5pt
Executable
35.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $800 · Kalshi OI 2
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:05 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 284 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 19?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 7pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
34.0¢
Kalshi
41.0¢
Gap
7.0pt
Executable
47.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $812 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:04 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 285 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 19?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-19
Why Shadow 11pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
32.0¢
Kalshi
43.0¢
Gap
11.0pt
Executable
53.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $834 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 18, 2026, 9:04 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 285 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 18?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 6pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
18.0¢
Kalshi
23.5¢
Gap
5.5pt
Executable
28.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $910 · Kalshi OI 246
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 10:26 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on October 18?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 14pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
32.5¢
Kalshi
46.0¢
Gap
13.5pt
Executable
55.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $802 · Kalshi OI 63
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:17 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 18?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 6pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
30.0¢
Kalshi
24.0¢
Gap
-6.0pt
Executable
30.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $867 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:11 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 18?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 19pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
29.5¢
Kalshi
48.5¢
Gap
19.0pt
Executable
54.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $979 · Kalshi OI 11
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:11 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 18?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 12pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
28.0¢
Kalshi
16.5¢
Gap
-11.5pt
Executable
21.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $915 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:11 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 18?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 8pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
14.0¢
Kalshi
6.5¢
Gap
-7.5pt
Executable
10.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $904 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:11 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on October 18?
Los Angeles · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 8pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
20.0¢
Kalshi
28.5¢
Gap
8.5pt
Executable
37.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $828 · Kalshi OI 29
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:10 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 18?
Los Angeles · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 8pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
21.0¢
Kalshi
28.5¢
Gap
7.5pt
Executable
37.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $836 · Kalshi OI 10
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:10 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 306 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 18?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 11pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
22.5¢
Kalshi
33.5¢
Gap
11.0pt
Executable
36.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $788 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:10 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 18?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 12pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
28.5¢
Kalshi
40.0¢
Gap
11.5pt
Executable
36.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $1022 · Kalshi OI 2
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:10 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 18?
Houston · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 27pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
28.0¢
Kalshi
55.0¢
Gap
27.0pt
Executable
55.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $761 · Kalshi OI 7
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:09 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 308 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on October 18?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 16pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
29.0¢
Kalshi
13.5¢
Gap
-15.5pt
Executable
17.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $802 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on October 18?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 12pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
32.5¢
Kalshi
44.0¢
Gap
11.5pt
Executable
55.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $913 · Kalshi OI 17
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 18?
Atlanta · between · resolves 2026-10-18
Why Shadow 9pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
15.0¢
Kalshi
6.0¢
Gap
-9.0pt
Executable
9.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $895 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 17, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 309 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 17?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 5pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
12.0¢
Kalshi
17.0¢
Gap
5.0pt
Executable
19.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $889 · Kalshi OI 475
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 12:21 PM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 333 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on October 17?
San Francisco · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 5pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
23.0¢
Kalshi
28.0¢
Gap
5.0pt
Executable
41.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $944 · Kalshi OI 34
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:42 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on October 17?
Los Angeles · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 10pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
26.5¢
Kalshi
36.0¢
Gap
9.5pt
Executable
45.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $853 · Kalshi OI 201
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:29 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 17?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 10pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
31.5¢
Kalshi
21.5¢
Gap
-10.0pt
Executable
23.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $897 · Kalshi OI 39
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:19 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 333 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 17?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 10pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
43.0¢
Kalshi
52.5¢
Gap
9.5pt
Executable
45.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $1093 · Kalshi OI 46
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:18 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 333 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on October 17?
San Francisco · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 13pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
12.0¢
Kalshi
25.0¢
Gap
13.0pt
Executable
19.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $958 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:10 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on October 17?
Austin · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 19pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
29.5¢
Kalshi
10.5¢
Gap
-19.0pt
Executable
13.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $826 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:09 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 332 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on October 17?
Austin · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 19pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
25.5¢
Kalshi
44.5¢
Gap
19.0pt
Executable
49.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $702 · Kalshi OI 10
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:09 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 332 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 17?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 12pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
45.5¢
Kalshi
34.0¢
Gap
-11.5pt
Executable
44.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $1021 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 17?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 8pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
34.0¢
Kalshi
41.5¢
Gap
7.5pt
Executable
53.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $969 · Kalshi OI 10
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 17?
Seattle · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 18pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
30.5¢
Kalshi
12.5¢
Gap
-18.0pt
Executable
21.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $940 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:08 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on October 17?
Los Angeles · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 12pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
25.0¢
Kalshi
13.0¢
Gap
-12.0pt
Executable
19.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $837 · Kalshi OI 35
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 330 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 17?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-17
Why Shadow 16pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
24.0¢
Kalshi
8.0¢
Gap
-16.0pt
Executable
12.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $806 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 16, 2026, 9:07 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 333 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 16?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-16
Why Shadow 5pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
49.5¢
Kalshi
54.5¢
Gap
5.0pt
Executable
52.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $973 · Kalshi OI 208
Opened Oct 15, 2026, 9:21 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 357 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 16?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-16
Why Shadow 9pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
41.5¢
Kalshi
32.5¢
Gap
-9.0pt
Executable
33.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $901 · Kalshi OI 11
Opened Oct 15, 2026, 9:12 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 357 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on October 16?
Miami · between · resolves 2026-10-16
Why Shadow 8pt polymarket/kalshi disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
17.0¢
Kalshi
9.5¢
Gap
-7.5pt
Executable
10.0¢
Leading venue
polymarket
Lagging venue
kalshi
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $905 · Kalshi OI 26
Opened Oct 15, 2026, 9:12 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 357 hours ago · fully observed
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 16?
San Francisco · between · resolves 2026-10-16
Why Shadow 22pt kalshi/polymarket disagreement · Station-verified equivalent weather contract · Fully observed - awaiting resolution
Polymarket
28.5¢
Kalshi
50.5¢
Gap
22.0pt
Executable
55.0¢
Leading venue
kalshi
Lagging venue
polymarket
Depth/capacity
Poly liquidity $814 · Kalshi OI 0
Opened Oct 15, 2026, 9:01 AM CDT · latest checkpoint resolution · Updated 354 hours ago · fully observed
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Why Shadow 18pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
76.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
59.0¢
Gap
-17.5pt
Executable
77.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Oct 12, 2026, 9:09 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 455 hours ago · fully observed
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Why Shadow 16pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
48.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
64.4¢
Gap
15.9pt
Executable
94.0¢
Reference depth
5 books
Opened Sep 6, 2026, 6:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1322 hours ago · fully observed
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Why Shadow 5pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
45.0¢
Sportsbook consensus
39.6¢
Gap
-5.4pt
Executable
69.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Why Shadow 28pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
40.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
12.5¢
Gap
-28.0pt
Executable
64.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Why Shadow 13pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
55.0¢
Sportsbook consensus
68.5¢
Gap
13.5pt
Executable
79.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Why Shadow 9pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
53.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
44.6¢
Gap
-8.9pt
Executable
78.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Why Shadow 24pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
51.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
27.0¢
Gap
-24.5pt
Executable
76.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Why Shadow 23pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
50.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
27.9¢
Gap
-22.6pt
Executable
75.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Why Shadow 5pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
45.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
50.9¢
Gap
5.4pt
Executable
70.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Why Shadow 7pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
42.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
35.6¢
Gap
-6.9pt
Executable
66.0¢
Reference depth
5 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Why Shadow 56pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Prospective validation still underway
Polymarket
58.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
2.9¢
Gap
-55.6pt
Executable
82.0¢
Reference depth
1 books
Opened Sep 5, 2026, 7:42 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +3m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1345 hours ago · stalled - no recent update
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Why Shadow 5pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
58.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
63.6¢
Gap
5.1pt
Executable
82.0¢
Reference depth
9 books
Opened Sep 4, 2026, 5:55 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1371 hours ago · fully observed
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Why Shadow 5pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
54.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
59.8¢
Gap
5.3pt
Executable
55.0¢
Reference depth
9 books
Opened Sep 2, 2026, 3:17 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1421 hours ago · fully observed
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Why Shadow 28pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
80.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
52.2¢
Gap
-28.3pt
Executable
81.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 2, 2026, 2:26 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1422 hours ago · fully observed
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
45.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
39.6¢
Gap
-5.9pt
Executable
46.0¢
Reference depth
9 books
Opened Sep 2, 2026, 2:16 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1422 hours ago · fully observed
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Why Shadow 8pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
44.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
36.8¢
Gap
-7.7pt
Executable
45.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1424 hours ago · fully observed
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
47.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
41.9¢
Gap
-5.6pt
Executable
48.0¢
Reference depth
9 books
Opened Sep 2, 2026, 11:45 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1425 hours ago · fully observed
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Why Shadow 36pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
62.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
27.0¢
Gap
-35.5pt
Executable
63.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Why Shadow 18pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
44.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
26.3¢
Gap
-18.2pt
Executable
45.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Why Shadow 27pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
38.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
11.8¢
Gap
-26.7pt
Executable
39.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Why Shadow 9pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
54.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
63.8¢
Gap
9.3pt
Executable
55.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Why Shadow 49pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
52.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
3.1¢
Gap
-49.4pt
Executable
53.0¢
Reference depth
1 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Why Shadow 16pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
81.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
97.1¢
Gap
15.6pt
Executable
82.0¢
Reference depth
1 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 9:48 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1439 hours ago · fully observed
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Why Shadow 21pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
47.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
68.6¢
Gap
21.1pt
Executable
48.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 8:06 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1440 hours ago · fully observed
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Why Shadow 8pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
44.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
52.9¢
Gap
8.4pt
Executable
45.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 8:06 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1440 hours ago · fully observed
Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Why Shadow 33pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
51.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
18.3¢
Gap
-33.2pt
Executable
52.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Why Shadow 30pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
52.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
82.3¢
Gap
29.8pt
Executable
53.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Why Shadow 54pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
39.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
93.9¢
Gap
54.4pt
Executable
40.0¢
Reference depth
3 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Why Shadow 34pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
59.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
93.5¢
Gap
34.0pt
Executable
60.0¢
Reference depth
4 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Why Shadow 43pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
54.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
97.1¢
Gap
42.6pt
Executable
55.0¢
Reference depth
1 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Why Shadow 35pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
61.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
96.6¢
Gap
35.1pt
Executable
62.0¢
Reference depth
2 books
Opened Sep 1, 2026, 7:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1441 hours ago · fully observed
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Why Shadow 11pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
49.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
38.3¢
Gap
-11.3pt
Executable
50.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 31, 2026, 6:51 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1466 hours ago · fully observed
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Why Shadow 30pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
51.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
22.0¢
Gap
-29.5pt
Executable
52.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 31, 2026, 6:41 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1466 hours ago · fully observed
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Why Shadow 14pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
65.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
51.5¢
Gap
-14.0pt
Executable
66.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 31, 2026, 6:30 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1466 hours ago · fully observed
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Why Shadow 19pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
59.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
78.5¢
Gap
19.0pt
Executable
60.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 31, 2026, 6:20 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1466 hours ago · fully observed
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Why Shadow 18pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
64.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
82.8¢
Gap
18.3pt
Executable
65.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 31, 2026, 6:20 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1466 hours ago · fully observed
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Why Shadow 14pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
60.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
74.6¢
Gap
14.1pt
Executable
61.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 7:19 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1489 hours ago · fully observed
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics
Why Shadow 14pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
82.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
68.2¢
Gap
-14.3pt
Executable
83.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 4:08 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1492 hours ago · fully observed
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Why Shadow 10pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
61.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
51.4¢
Gap
-10.1pt
Executable
62.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 3:28 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1493 hours ago · fully observed
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Why Shadow 19pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
48.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
67.3¢
Gap
18.8pt
Executable
49.0¢
Reference depth
7 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 2:27 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1494 hours ago · fully observed
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Why Shadow 8pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
45.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
37.9¢
Gap
-7.6pt
Executable
46.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
28.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
22.6¢
Gap
-5.9pt
Executable
29.0¢
Reference depth
5 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:56 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
86.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
80.6¢
Gap
-5.9pt
Executable
87.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:36 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Why Shadow 13pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
65.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
78.2¢
Gap
12.7pt
Executable
66.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:36 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Why Shadow 16pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
45.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
29.6¢
Gap
-15.9pt
Executable
46.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:36 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Why Shadow 11pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
63.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
52.9¢
Gap
-10.6pt
Executable
64.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:26 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Why Shadow 15pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · Game catalyst occurred since open - gap may reflect real news · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
69.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
85.0¢
Gap
15.5pt
Executable
70.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 1:15 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1495 hours ago · fully observed
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
Why Shadow 16pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
52.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
68.4¢
Gap
15.9pt
Executable
53.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 12:55 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1496 hours ago · fully observed
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
42.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
49.0¢
Gap
6.5pt
Executable
43.0¢
Reference depth
6 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 12:55 PM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1496 hours ago · fully observed
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Why Shadow 6pt gap vs sportsbook consensus · No new game catalyst since open · Fully observed - case closed
Polymarket
51.5¢
Sportsbook consensus
57.1¢
Gap
5.6pt
Executable
52.0¢
Reference depth
9 books
Opened Aug 30, 2026, 11:24 AM CDT · latest checkpoint +15m (NO_NEW_GAME_CATALYST) · Updated 1497 hours ago · fully observed
Strategy Validation
Collector issue155 / 30 independent episodes
CLOSED / REJECTED (V39_1): frozen at 29 fully-observed episodes - the live-uncertainty window this hypothesis needed never survived past signal-open (0/29). A data-availability finding, not a failed edge.
REJECTED · Next: None - closed, no further evaluation
42 / 40 clean fresh cases
CLOSED / REJECTED (V46_1): frozen N=40 evaluated per the predeclared kill spec - mean convergence and its CI both pass, but win rate 32.5% decisively fails the >=60% success bar.
REJECTED · Next: None - closed, no further evaluation
108 qualifying signals observed
REJECTED · None - closed, no further evaluation
Best Copy Trade Today
No currently-actionable, highly-copyable trader position exists right now.
My Paper Trades
Current P/L
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System Health
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Candidates Worth Investigating (Historical)
Market Investigation represents candidate quality and investigation readiness, not a trade decision — Daily Trade Ideas above is the only BUY/WATCH/PASS action layer. Related markets (same event, same threshold ladder) are grouped under one representative; already-investigated PASS candidates are shown but do not lead the list. This ranking is not from a recent regeneration - opportunity regeneration has not completed successfully yet.
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